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Prediction for CME (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-05T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26352/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen W and S in SOHO and STEREO A associated with long duration M1.6-class solar flare/filament eruption near S10W68. Faint shock presents as a full halo with preference towards the west. Around 2023-08-05T06:45Z, a dark filament near the western portion of the disk is seen lifting off, becoming a bright structure as it leaves the disk towards the west. A somewhat unclear arrival signature, affected by low quality solar wind data from both DSCOVR and ACE during this time period. Arrival signature: initial increase in B_total from 7.4 nT to 10.5 nT, followed by another increase to 13.6 nT at 11:54Z. The signature looks like a messy sheath arrival and it is possible that there is a flux rope/magnetic cloud at ~2023-08-08T01Z but this could be another CME arrival (LASSOS team). The current arrival may also have been observed at STEREO A around 2023-08-07T08:46Z. Alternatively, this could be the combined arrival of 2023-08-04T04:17Z and 2023-08-04T04:49Z CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T11:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-08T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2023 Aug 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3386 (N11W69, Dhi/beta)
produced a long-duration M1.6 flare at 05/0718 UTC with Type-II radio
emissions (572 km/s) and an associated CME visible in LASCO C2 beginning
at 05/0700 UTC. An M2.1 flare was observed at 05/0936 UTC from beyond
the SW limb, in the vicinity of old Region 3380. Minor development was
observed in Regions 3386 and 3392 (N10W13, Dao/beta-gamma) while the
remaining regions were mostly stable.

The CME associated with the M1.6 flare at 05/0718 UTC from Region 3386
is expected to result in a glancing-blow arrival early on 08 Aug.

Lead Time: 47.92 hour(s)
Difference: -13.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-08-05T11:12Z

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